About this chart

I’ve recently compiled and analysed hundreds of technical and macroeconomic indicators from highly regarded sources like the Federal Reserve (FRED) and the blockchain itself. After extensive backtesting, I distilled this data into a focused set of signals that reliably highlight the best long-term cyclical buying and selling windows for Bitcoin—shown by the coloured bands.

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Important: In most cases, simply buying and holding an asset you believe in (like BTC or a fund) has outperformed the majority of short-term trading strategies. This chart is best used for education, context, and timing major cycles—not for trading. It is my first large coding project.

All data and signals are automatically refreshed through API calls from my live trading system.

Cycle forecast: Based on historical cycle growth rates and the trend of smaller, less extreme price swings as Bitcoin’s market matures and grows.
BTC PRICE CHANGE YTD: $56,058 → $114,138(+103.61%)
My risk assessment:

Despite BTC having mathematically guaranteed scarcity, being deflationary in nature and pioneering decentralised design, I remain cautious about its long-term prospects. Key risks include:

On the positive side:

A frequently debated perspective is whether Bitcoin functions as a decentralised Ponzi scheme — where early adopters profit as new investors drive demand. While lacking a central orchestrator and deceptive guarantees, Bitcoin’s reliance on continual adoption to sustain prices invites this comparison. However, its transparent market dynamics and real-world utility distinguish it from outright fraud.

Ultimately, like many transformative innovations, Bitcoin could either revolutionise finance or remain a speculative bubble akin to historic manias.

This analysis is not investment advice. As always, do your own research and consider both the risks and the potential of any asset.