About this chart

I’ve recently compiled and analysed hundreds of technical and macroeconomic indicators from highly regarded sources like the Federal Reserve (FRED) and the blockchain itself. After extensive backtesting, I distilled this data into a focused set of signals that reliably highlight the best long-term cyclical buying and selling windows for Bitcoin—shown by the coloured bands.

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Important: In most cases, simply buying and holding an asset you believe in (like BTC or a fund) has outperformed the majority of short-term trading strategies. This chart is best used for education, context, and timing major cycles—not for trading. It is my first large coding project.

All data and signals are automatically refreshed through API calls from my live trading system.

Cycle forecast:

Predicted top for this halving cycle: $74,402 – $96,637
Predicted bottom for this halving cycle: $179,501 – $258,307

Based on historical cycle growth rates and the trend of smaller, less extreme price swings as Bitcoin’s market matures and grows.

BTC PRICE CHANGE YTD: $56,058 → $114,138(+103.61%)

My risk assessment:
Despite BTC having mathematically guaranteed scarcity, being deflationary in nature and pioneering decentralised design, I remain cautious about its long-term prospects. Key risks include:

Quantum Computing Threats: Future advances in quantum computing could break Bitcoin’s cryptography, but achieving global consensus on upgrades is uncertain.

Lack of Intrinsic Value: Bitcoin’s value depends entirely on collective belief, unlike assets tied to cash flow or industrial use.
Environmental and Technical Challenges: Proof-of-work requires high energy consumption and may become inefficient compared to newer consensus methods.
Regulatory Uncertainty: Governments might impose restrictive regulations or bans, threatening adoption and price stability.
Strategic Accumulation & Market Manipulation: Large actors, including governments, could amass Bitcoin to exert market influence or destabilise confidence, though such control is costly and difficult.
Centralisation Risks: Mining pools and large holders (whales) may threaten Bitcoin’s decentralised ethos.
Technological Obsolescence: Superior blockchain technologies might erode Bitcoin’s dominance.

On the positive side:

Absolute Digital Scarcity: Bitcoin’s supply is fixed and transparent, unlike physical commodities that could be expanded through mining innovations.
Network Effects: Bitcoin’s first-mover advantage, extensive developer ecosystem, and institutional adoption bolster its resilience.
Store-of-Value Narrative: Increasingly seen as a hedge against fiat inflation and geopolitical risks.
Libertarian Ideals: Rooted in decentralisation and censorship resistance, it continues to attract ideological and financial support.

A frequently debated perspective is whether Bitcoin functions as a decentralised Ponzi scheme — where early adopters profit as new investors drive demand. While lacking a central orchestrator and deceptive guarantees, Bitcoin’s reliance on continual adoption to sustain prices invites this comparison. However, its transparent market dynamics and real-world utility distinguish it from outright fraud.

Ultimately, like many transformative innovations, Bitcoin could either revolutionise finance or remain a speculative bubble akin to historic manias.

This analysis is not investment advice. As always, do your own research and consider both the risks and the potential of any asset.